What Manitoba COVID-19 modelling means for the healthcare system

By | April 29, 2020

WINNIPEG — The province has said it has planned to add 300 additional medicine beds to the healthcare system if required as the province continues to face the pandemic.

On Wednesday, Dr. Brent Roussin, chief provincial public health officer, and Lanette Siragusa, chief nursing officer for Shared Health, released modelling data for COVID-19 in Manitoba.

READ MORE: Manitoba health officials release COVID-19 modelling

It shows Manitoba’s number of hospitalizations due to the virus are not as high as was expected.

The model slightly over projects this data, Roussin said. It projected 46 total hospitalizations by April 25, though at that time Manitoba had 29 total hospitalizations.

By May 8, the model projects another 14 people will be hospitalized due to the virus.

Currently Manitoba has 2,432 acute hospital beds. Siragusa said the health care system’s current occupancy is significantly lower than it would normally be right now.

Modelling data shows there is a 40 per cent vacancy.

There are currently 86 adult intensive care beds, with a 39 per cent vacancy.

She said part of that is because surgical cases have been delayed, and a number of procedures that have been on hold for the past few weeks. It also reflects a lower occupancy in the medical units as well.

“As we talk about the need to increase surgeries and increase those procedures back into the system, it is a balance of making sure that we have capacity, we can maintain staff safety as well as for patients,” Siragusa said.

“We expect to do this carefully and thoughtfully, but appreciating that those peaks and valleys will affect our acute care beds.”

At Health Sciences Centre, St. Boniface and Grace Hospital, Siragusa said there are dedicated COVID-19 units that have been established and staffed. Outside of Winnipeg, she said there is planning for specific locations for positive COVID-19 patients when they are identified.

Siragusa said the planning has also identified the ability to add an additional 300 medicine beds into the system if required. 

You can see the modelling data for Manitoba below:

(Source: Province of Manitoba)

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