City of Winnipeg reveals best-case and worst-case COVID-19 timelines

By | September 14, 2020

WINNIPEG — The City of Winnipeg has created several timelines outlining what COVID-19 could do to the city’s economy ahead of the Standing Policy Committee on Finance Regular Meeting on Tuesday.

The first timeline pictures the best-case scenario for dealing with the pandemic.

In it, restrictions stay much the same until borders open in May and a vaccine comes out in July. Once the vaccine is out, the city predicts the province will fully reopen.

Under the best-case scenario timeline, the GDP growth rate in Winnipeg surges 4.6 per cent in 2021 and 23,300 unemployed people find jobs.

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(Source: City of Winnipeg)

The City of Winnipeg also created a medium-case scenario timeline.

In a medium-case scenario, a vaccine is not created. Current restrictions remain in place and Manitoba stays under a caution warning.

International and interprovincial borders open up in May despite not having a vaccine.

If this scenario takes place, the city believes Winnipeg’s GDP growth rate will rise only 2.1 per cent. From 2020 to 2021, the city will net 9,600 jobs.

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(Source: City of Winnipeg)

The last timeline the city created details a worst-case scenario.

In the timeline, a resurgence of COVID-19 happens in October. The province slides into lockdown in January before recovering in spring.

Come October 2021, another wave of the virus hits with no vaccine present.

In this worst-case scenario, the city predicts the GDP growth rate to increase at a stagnant 0.7 per cent. The change in employment would only be 100 jobs and the unemployment rate would increase by a tenth of a per cent.

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(Source: City of Winnipeg)

These scenarios are only hypothetical and are being used to help the city plan ahead for an uncertain future. 

The Standing Policy Committee on Finance Regular Meeting, where the city will discuss the timelines, is Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. 

A full copy of the agenda can be found here.

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